5/23/07 A few quick thoughts on tonight's NBA Draft Lottery (I'm sure I'll have more to say closer to the actual Draft as well…) I was looking forward to a quasi-consolation prize for the screw job that Stern and Co. put on the Suns in the form of a lottery pick, acquired from the ATL in the Joe Johnson deal. The one caveat to the pick was that it's lottery protected. And wouldn't you know it, the woeful Hawks caught a break and moved up from #4 to #3 and will keep the pick (PHX gets Atlanta's pick next year no matter what). I was thinking Al Horford from Florida, who many compare to Carlos Boozer, would've been a really nice addition on the interior, especially if Shawn Marion leaves. So now Suns fans get to wait and watch what happens with Kevin Garnett. For the record, there is no bigger KG fan than me anywhere. He's Tim Duncan plus jump shot range, a handle, reliable free throw shooting, and passion. But the much-speculated KG for Amare deal makes me uneasy. If it could guarantee a ring of course you do it. But there are no guarantees. We'll see.
As for God Incarnate in basketball form, Greg Oden, all I can say is, in college basketball fan fashion: Over-rated, clap, clap, clap-clap-clap, Over-rated, clap, clap, clap-clap-clap. Dude's a nice prospect, no doubt about it. But all the "best big man prospect in 20 years" has to stop! Off the top of my head here are big men that I put ahead of an even "in his prime" Greg Oden in that span (post Ewing): David Robinson, Shaquille O'Neal (anyone remember him?), Tim Duncan (who I hate), maybe even Yao Ming. At Oden's peak he's Dikembe Mutombo. At his worst he's Michael Olowakandi. Let me repeat that: Greg Oden's ceiling is comparable to Dike Mutombo. Let's take a closer look in fact. I've compared Mutombo's final collegiate season with Oden' frosh season. (Remember where Mutombo would've been in his development compared to Oden.)
MPG PPG RPG BPG APG SPG FG % FT %
Dikembe Mutombo
1990-91 Georgetown 34.1 15.2 12.2 4.7 1.6 0.6 0.59 0.70
Greg Oden
2006-07 Ohio State 28.9 15.7 9.6 3.3 0.7 0.6 0.62 0.63
And here is Mutombo's first five NBA seasons, which I think provide a basis for the type of production we could see from Oden.
D. Mutombo-First Five NBA Seasons
1991-92 Denver 38.3 16.6 12.3 3.0 2.2 0.6 0.49 0.64
1992-93 Denver 36.9 13.8 13.0 3.5 1.8 0.5 0.51 0.68
1993-94 Denver 34.8 12.0 11.8 4.1 1.5 0.7 0.57 0.58
1994-95 Denver 37.8 11.5 12.5 3.9 1.4 0.5 0.56 0.65
1995-96 Denver 36.7 11.0 11.8 4.5 1.5 0.5 0.50 0.70
Solid player, great defender and shot blocker, limited offensive range and tools. (And obviously I concede that Oden is more athletic than the early Mutombo was.) Not exactly, the best of the last quarter century to me. And for all of Oden's defensive and rebounding prowess, he was OUT REBOUNDED by Kevin Durant, by almost 2 boards a game. The "only a scorer" Durant out rebounded the great Greg Oden. I am a big Durant guy-26 and 11 as a frosh in the Big 12, National Player of the Year, not too shabby. He'll be the better pro to me without a doubt. Guy can step and shoot from anywhere, put the ball on the floor and get to the rack, plus he's a better passer out of the post. And as for Oden's championship prowess (you can't watch anything on Oden without hearing about how he'll lead his team to numerous rings), didn't Durant win as many national championships in college as Oden? Zero. So how is Oden more of a "champion" than Durant? Greg Oden will be a good player, flirting with All-NBA Defense pretty much every year and maybe make a handful of All-Star appearances. Durant will do all of the following: make more All-Star appearances, be among the NBA's leaders in more categories year after year, be among MVP vote getters more often, and make more Finals appearances. 20 years from now Kevin Durant will be considered the crown jewel of this draft, not Oden. In fact, I'm more intrigued with Yi Jianlan, the Chinese big in the Dirk mold, than the 40 Year-Old-Virgin (more a knock on his ripened looks than his prowess with the ladies...), Greg Oden. And Oden's clingyness on buddy Mike Conley, Jr. is a bit disconcerting as well (teammates in high school, then in college, now word is Oden is trying to get Portland to pull strings to get Conley there also. Cut the cord, homey!) Prove me wrong, kid. Just like the Candy Man did…
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