4/26/06 Here's my complete NFL Draft First Round breakdown, kids. I'll give you my big board, team needs, and a "what they should do/what they will do" eval. Enjoy.
Dizzle's Dirty Dozen (Top Players Available)
1.) Adrian Peterson 7.) Jamaal Anderson
2.) Calvin Johnson 8.) Dwayne Jarrett
3.) JaMarcus Russell 9.) Brady Quinn
4.) Joe Thomas 10.) LaRon Landry
5.) Amobi Okoye 11.) Patrick Willis
6.) Gaines Adams 12.) Aaron Ross
1.) Oakland-Team Needs: Everything. Specifically, QB, OT, DT, TE. What they should do: Trade out of the top pick. When you have this many needs, no one player will do it. Acquire additional picks and/or NFL contributors, especially on the O-line. Trade with, say, the Bucs at #4, take that pick, a mid rounder, and OT Jeremy Trueblood. Pick Adrian Peterson or best available at 4. Johnson makes no sense with Moss, Porter, and Curry in the fold. What they will do: They'll take Russell. He's a physical marvel with a huge arm. But 60% of 1st round QB's flop. Russell is boom or bust.
2.) Detroit-Team Needs: RB, OT, OG, OLB, QB. What they should do: Not pick Calvin Johnson. WR is not a need. Maybe, just maybe, Charles Rogers and Mike Williams have been busts because of instability, organizationally and offensively. Joe Thomas or Gaines Adams make the most sense. They have skill position talent, they just need the complimentary pieces. What they will do: Seems like they're leaning toward Adams. They have talent on D (rook Ernie Sims had 124 tackles) and Adams would give them a nice rush end.
3.) Cleveland-Team Needs: OG, DE, QB, DT. What they should do: I'm torn here. Adrian Peterson would be a great compliment to Jamal Lewis and he's my top rated player. But they could really use an impact player in the pass rush game, like Okoye or Anderson. Maybe a bit too high for them here, though. Peterson makes sense. Hometown boy Brady Quinn will get a lot of love, especially with the Romeo Crennel/Charlie Weis conection. What they will do: I'm saying they take Quinn. I'm not as big on Quinn as some and not as down on him as some. Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson are decent, but certainly not starters. Quinn has a low ceiling and a low floor. It could work.
4.) Tampa Bay-Team Needs: WR, OLB, OT, S. What they should do: This would be Tampa's dream scenario: a shot at Calvin Johnson (who is slightly overrated to me) without having to trade up. John Gruden has 900 QB's. They'll have a stud to throw to. What they will do: If Johnson is here, this is a no brainer. Otherwise, Joe Thomas would fit.
5.) Arizona-Team Needs: OT, CB, FS, DE. What they should do: If Thomas is on the board, he's the pick. Leonard Davis was a bust but he left town. A nice bookend like Thomas would be good for the Cards. Just a thought, though, Matt Leinart's a lefty. Do you move Thomas to the right side? What they will do: If Thomas is available, he's the guy. Jamaal Anderson could also get a look here. Or Peterson.
6.) Washington-Team Needs: CB, SS, DE, DT. What they should do: Everyone says that Washington wants out of this pick, if, as is likely, the player or two they covet is gone and teams want to trade up for Quinn if he was still around. This would be a good spot to address defensive needs but any player's a bit of a reach. Landry is similar to Sean Taylor but would give them depth. Okoye, Anderson, or Adam Carriker could get a look. What they will do: If they can't trade down, they should go best available defender.
7.) -Team Needs: WR, TE, OG, DE. What they should do: Like the Skins, the players the Vikings wanted here are likely gone, and the other needs are probably reaches. If Peterson falls here, they snatch him up. If one of the key DE's falls, they'll get a look as well. What they will do: I'll say Peterson is here and he's the pick.
8.) Atlanta-Team Needs: DE, OT, FS, OG. What they should do: Provided that Okoye and Anderson are gone, Landry makes sense here. He compares favorably to Michael Huff, who went 7th last year. What they will do: They likely go with Landry. That would give the Falcons a sick young nucleus in the secondary with the likes of DeAngelo Hall and Jimmy Williams, who I'm big on.
9.) Miami-Team Needs: OT, DT, OLB, SS, CB. What they should do: Levi Brown should be on the board here. The Dolphins can get a Richmond Webb type to protect whichever QB they end up with. If Quinn falls, he could land here. What they will do: Brown is the pick. They need someone to protect the passer and open space for Ronnie Brown.
10.) Houston-Team Needs: RB, OT, CB, WR. What they should do: Based on need, the only value they can get here is CB. I like Aaron Ross more than Leon Hall, but Hall seems to be the popular choice here. TO me, though, Dwayne Jarrett would look awfully nice paired with Andre Johnson. What they will do: I think they go CB. Hall's probably the guy.
11.) San Francisco-Team Needs: WR, OLB, DE, S. What they should do: They should run to the podium and take Jarrett and pair him with Vernon Davis for the nest 10 years. Remember, Jerry Rice was considered pretty slow, too, as is the knock on Jarrett. Any other need is a reach. What they will do: They will probably reach for a DE, say Adam Carriker. They may also overlook Jarrett and look to wideouts like Robert Meacham or Dwayne Bowe (reaches.)
12.) Buffalo-Team Needs: ILB, CB, OG, FB. What they should do: They need an inside linebacker. Patrick Willis is a baller. If he's here, the Bills can't get to the podium fast enough. What they will do: Willis should be available. The Bills grab him.
13.) St. Louis-Team Needs: DL, WR, CB, P. What they should do: Again, to me, Jarrett is a premium value pick here. Alan Branch could get love to shore up the D-line. I'd go Jarrett. What they will do: They probably go with Branch. Word is they covet Ted Ginn, Jr. so he's a possibility (reach.)
14.) Carolina-Team Needs: SS, FS, ILB, WR. What they should do: They need help on D more than a tight end, as is the popular speculation. There is no value at need positions here, however. I was a bit of a Greg Olsen hater all year (only 1 td), but he looked amazing in his combine workouts. Vernon Davis-type amazing. Provided he's not Mike Mamula, he's the guy. What they will do: Given the way the board probably looks, they go Olsen.
15.) Pittsburgh-Team Needs: RB, DE, OG, RB. What they should do: They lost Joey Porter to Miami, so the Steelers could look to upgrade at LB. If they do, value suggests Paul Posluszny or Lawrence Timmons. I like Posluszny more so I'd go with him, although he's probably better suited for a 3-4. What they will do: For value at this pick, Timmons looks like the guy.
16.) Green Bay-Team Needs: RB, TE, SS, WR. What they should do: This seems to be one of the more natural marriages in round 1. They need a running back and Marshawn Lynch is on the board. I'm a big Lynch fan and he'll be a solid replacement, if not upgrade, over the departed Ahman Green. What they will do: Lynch is the guy here. He's versatile on the field, and unfortunately, off it too. Character issues may cost him in the Goodell NFL.
17.) Jacksonville-Team Needs: FS, WR, LB, OG. What they should do: Getting Matt Jones and Reggie Williams some help at wide out is a possibility. The Jags are also looking safety. Receivers represent better value at the spot. I'd go with Dwayne Bowe. What they will do: Based on availability here, indications are that the Jags will go with, say, Michael Griffin, another Huff clone.
18.) Cincinnati-Team Needs: TE, OLB, DE, CB. What they should do: The Bengals took a step back in '07. Whatever they do, they need to make sure they get a character guy. Posluszny would be a great fit in terms of character. If they look at corner, Aaron Ross and Darrelle Revis should be available. All in all, I'd go with Posluszny. Maybe he can stay out of jail. What they will do: I think they'll address corner. Word is they like Revis.
19.) Tennessee-Team Needs: WR, ILB, OG, TE. What they should do: All indications are that the Titans want a receiver to help Vince Young. Ted Ginn can address not only that need but also the hole left in the return game with the suspension of Adam Jones (he lost the right to have a nickname.) I'm just not that big on Ginn. I like Meachem or Bowe better. Go with the hometown kid, Vol Meachem. What they will do: I bet they go with Ginn.
20.) N.Y. Giants-Team Needs: OLB, OT, CB, RB. What they should do: Again, value comes into play here. Probably too high for any available OT's, which is really their biggest need. Corner here's a reach as well. If either Timmons or Posluszny is here, that would be the pick. There really aren't any value picks based on need. I'll go outside the box and say they should reach a bit and take OT Joe Staley. What they will do: This is a wild card pick. They go best available.
21.) Denver-Team Needs: CB, RB, DT, S. What they should do: Safety would be a good pick here. Brandon Meriweather and Reggie Nelson should be on the board. Neither blows me away, but both are solid; both also have off the field questions. Nelson's a little bigger, I'll go with him. What they will do: The Broncos may look foe pass rush help. If they do a Jarvis Moss or Anthony Spencer make sense.
22.) Dallas-Team Needs: C, OT, OG, FS, WR. What they should do: Terry Glenn isn't getting any younger and T.O. isn't getting any less crazy. WR makes sense, to compliment young talent like Tony Romo and Julius Jones. I'd go with whoever was still on the board betwixt Meachem and Bowe. If Jarrett's here, he's the guy. What they will do: I think Jerry Jones is looking to create some distance with T.O. Drafting a WR in the first round's a start. Word is they like Bowe here.
23.) Kansas City-Team Needs: OT, WR, DT, OG. What they should do: I think the Chiefs' biggest need is at WR. They need a compliment to Tony Gonzalez, who is still football's best tight end. The way things shake out at least one of the top 3 rated receivers should be available. This will only open things up for Larry Johnson, once teams can't load up the box. Again, I'm a big Jarrett fan. If he's here, grab the dude (41 td's in 3 years!) What they will do: Seems to me that whichever of the top 3 WR's is here (provided one is) represents great value. I think they'll go WR.
24.) New England-Team Needs: OLB, CB, ILB, WR. What they should do: The rich only get richer, as the Pats have two picks in round 1, not to mention how active they've been in free agency. I think they definitely want to address corner at some point, with the Asante Samuel soap opera. Value becomes a question if the top guys are gone by now. Daymeion Hughes could be an option, as would H.B. Blades at LB. I like both guys but neither project this high. LB David Harris could work, too, and Harris might represent better value. Either Blades or Harris could work for Belichick. What they will do: I'll go with either LB here.
25.) N.Y. Jets-Team Needs: OT, DT, CB, OG. What they should do: Acquiring Thomas Jones was the best move of the off-season in my mind. They had a good draft last year and made big-time strides toward big things. Justin Harrell could be a target but if Adrian Peterson has injury concerns then Harrell should be even more flagged. Guy was hurt every year of his career. If they look DE, I like Charles Johnson. I'd go with him, as no value exists anywhere else. What they will do: I think they do go DE, either Johnson, Harrell, or Anthony Spencer.
26.) Philadelphia-Team Needs: OLB, WR, S, CB. What they should do: Brian Dawkins is no spring chicken. With the talent the defense has, adding a young playmaker in the secondary could help. There should be one here, say Meriweather or Griffin. What they will do: They go defense, with a S or LB. Meriweather, let's say.
27.) New Orleans-Team Needs: TE, CB, DE, DT, OT. What they should do: The feel good story of '06. The Saints are a good team with young talent. They need upgrades on the D-line and at CB, as witnessed in the playoffs. No real value at corner, so they should look in the trenches. I like Victor Abiamiri as an athletic, speed rush end in the 5 or 6 technique. What they will do: They go best available defender.
28.) New England- What they should do: Pick number two in round one. They address a need at LB with the 24th pick. Here they should look first at any players who slip, and therefore represent pure value. They probably don't go corner yet. I think Chad Jackson's a star in the making, but should a WR fall here, they could pull the trigger. What they will do: I'll go off the board a bit and say they go with OG Ben Grubbs, similar to what they did in '04, picking Logan Mankins in the first round.
29.) Baltimore-Team Needs: OLB, RB, DE, S. What they should do: They lost Jamal Lewis but they will likely look at RB later. The O-line is aging so I think they can address that here and get good value. Staley, if he's here, or a Ryan Khalil or Tony Ugoh would work. What they will do: They go with the best O-lineman, I'll say Tony Ugoh.
30.) San Diego-Team Needs: WR, OG, FS, ILB. What they should do: I've said for the last several years that the Chargers need to upgrade the receiver spot. A money WR will only open things up for L.T. to run and catch and for Antonio Gates. Assuming the top 3 guys are gone, I'd go with USC's Steve Smith, a guy I like a lot. He was always second fiddle to Jarrett. He gets his chance to shine. What they will do: I see them going with Smith, a So-Cal guy, at WR.
31.) Chicago-Team Needs: OLB, CB, OG, TE, WR. What they should do: One of the Bears' glaring needs is DT. At this spot, I'll say they should go with Brandon Mebane, a classic one gap stopper. What they will do: Go best available defense, either on the line or at LB (who knows what will happen with Lance Briggs.)
32.) Indianapolis-Team Needs: LB, DE, DT, RB. What they should do: Payton finally got his ring. But he's lost some key pieces this off-season (Cato June, Dominic Rhodes, etc.) They like undersized, fast defenders, especially at LB. I'm going way off the board here: take Quincy Black from New Mexico. 6'2", 240, ran 4.4, and had a vertical of 41.5". Plus he's hungry. What they will do: If one of the WR's slips here, they pluck him. Otherwise they look at a safer defensive pick, like a Chris Houston.
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